CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-04-24T14:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-24T14:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24775/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption centered around S35W25 starting around 2023-04-24T13:20Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An EUV wave is visible at this time in SDO AIA 193, with post eruptive loops forming around 14:00Z. Post eruptive dimming is also visible shortly following the eruption.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-27T05:00Z (-12.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-04-24T19:40Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 700
Longitude (deg): 8W
Latitude (deg): 38S
Half-angular width (deg): 38

Notes: Possible glancing blow
Space weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton

Lead Time: 47.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-04-25T06:00Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy